In the last few weeks, I’ve had to make a few relatively simple decisions, most recently on whom I want to share my next apartment with. These decisions have gotten as complicated as I’ve let them — and in the recent case — expanded to an entire day of thinking & analyzing, much to my ire.
To avoid over-rotating in the future, I’m proposing this algo:
- What do I want? How can I work backwards to make it happen?
- How important is this decision? How much time/energy is it worth putting into it?
- Write down the question
- “Size” the opportunity and identify how reversible it is (i.e., one-way vs. two-way doors)
- Choose a time bound
- What’s the EV?
- Structure the problem (I’m envisioning a decision tree) — ”a problem well-stated is a problem half solved”
- Identify the most significant variables and the questions re: them that need to be answered to make a decision; double click and bound/mitigate risks as appropriate
- Weight each branch (costs + benefits) and probability of occurrence
- Make the decision and then make the decision right
- Reflect
- Keep a decision journal and record why I made the decision
- Reflect later on whether it was the right decision given the information I had
- Get on with the day!
It goes without saying, the goal is to go harder when it’s an important decision, and spend the least time possible on those that are not importnt (unless it’s a fun one).
This in itself is fairly lengthy and risks over-complicating things. There’s a strong case for trusting your intuition in cases when you have a high believability index and just moving on. Identifying what those things are would be the starting point.
Misc thoughts
- Consensus is expensive; Elon is notoriously fast at making big decisions, and it seems like part of that is about how much ownership he has over his companies; in situations where consensus is required, it can be useful to designate a leader that owns the decision
I’m planning to continue thinking about this - please reach out if you have any thoughts or experiences !